Work Package 4

Derek Groen, David Bell, Hamid Arabnejad, Diana Suleimenova, Simon J. E. Taylor, Anastasia Anagnostou

Towards Modelling the Effect of Evolving Violence on Forced Migration

Refugee

Forcibly displaced people with the choice to stay or flee, the choice to flee internally or across borders, and the choice of destination. These decisions are often based on economic, social and/or political push and pull factors in origin and destination countries. These fleeing individuals are the unfortunate victims of civil wars and internal conflicts, who make decisions to migrate at the times of distress and Each of them in the simulation is represented by a single agent.

Camp

Camp is the location where human resources required for a forced population is allocated there and refugees as agents tend to finish their journeys there.

Route

The edges in the graphs represent travel routes, which feature as attributes a length in km, #of agents on the route, and the two end points.

Conflict location

Conflict Zone or location is the conflict areas or zones where battles occur and cause refugee agents to depart from there. We note the start date of any event as ‘battle’ during the simulation period. All conflict locations are assigned a population based on the latest census data.

simulation development approach (SDA)

This new approach helps to forecast refugee movements when a conflict erupts, guiding decisions on where to provide food and infrastructure. Acquire approximate refugee population estimates in regions where existing data is incomplete, to help prioritize resources to the most important areas. Investigate how border closures and other policy decisions are likely to affect the movements and destinations of refugees, to provide policy decision-makers with evidence that could support more effective policy and reduce unintended consequences.

Flare

Flare is a simple propagation code. It is used to model the gradual geographical spread of certain events. These could include certain food conditions, knowledge, diseases, opinions or violent events.

Fabric

Fabric is a high-level Python (2.7, 3.4+) library designed to execute shell commands remotely over SSH, yielding useful Python objects in return. It builds on top of Invoke (subprocess command execution and command-line features) and Paramiko (SSH protocol implementation), extending their APIs to complement one another and provide additional functionality.